Are We There Yet? The Top That Is

First post of 2010

It has been a while but I really haven"t had any real compelling reason to trade this topping action.

But now we are beginning to see Mr. Market show his hand with a very convincing down week.

we have a perfect 5 wave structure along with a price rejection at the 2008 63% and 2007 50% key fib levels . In addition a break of the upward March an July 2009 trend lines.

The market sold off this week and is now resting on the Dec 2009 low as well as a 50% retracement of the Nov 2009 low.

Monday I expect a bounce after an opening gap down back up to the 1120 level before a resumption of another down week.

If this the Top , we would expect to see lower highs and lower lows in the
days and weeks ahead.

on the 60 and 15 min chart I have outlined how I think the week will play out...

Merry Christmas Morning

Happy Holidays

Have a Cookie too....

SPY A Perfect Doji Close

A Perfect Doji close is indecision.

SPY Closing at the top of the Rectangle just barely a new high daily close.

Overnight the world markets are showing softness and the Euro /USD is down as well .

The Spy will open Gap down @ 111.25 and I expect another return to the 1085 level with a Friday close about 110 ish due to options expiration.

Seasonality suggests this week of Dec is very Bullish and I think this is what every one expects but the market is give the unexpected so stay tight on the stops .

The big risk today is a higher close and if that happens we will go higher up to Spx 1120-1135

Inverted Head and Shoulders Break Out

This what a good Head And Shoulders break Out looks like...notice the big build in volume at the break....

This is also an excellent long Entry point.
Expect some test of the neck line this week.
ALB is on the move to higher ground.
$40 is the target

Ag Chems Are on the Move

TNH Terra Nitrogen Asymmetrical Triangle long trade is good for $4 up to D and then $4 down to E then I expect to see break to the up side for $8 more ....By Feb 2110

International Markets are Weakening

This Asymmetrical Triangle Tracked out perfectly and broke down.

Lower Highs and Lower lows....Th real test will be to crack the horizontal support line below this level.

Some ask me if I think the Candle Wicks are significant to drawing pattern trend lines and I think the wicks tell us a lot about the sentiment of the day but it is the close that really counts.

The softening of the International Markets only supports the last 3 oil field charts I posted..

I expect a retest of the rising trend line first .

Another possibility is, this is the "c" wave of a long Descending Triangle with an apex at mid Febuary 2010